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  • Kalyan K Mohanty

COVID-19 Case Study


Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province, and has since spread globally, resulting in the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic. Common symptoms include fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Other symptoms may include fatigue, muscle pain, diarrhea, sore throat, loss of smell and abdominal pain. While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure. As of 13 April 2020, more than 1.8 million cases have been reported in more than 200 countries and territories, resulting in more than 114090 deaths. More than 421497 people have recovered.



Some details about how the disease is spread are still being determined. The WHO and CDC say it is primarily spread during close contact and by small droplets produced when people cough, sneeze or talk; with close contact being within 1–3 m (3 ft. 3 in–9 ft. 10 in). A study in Singapore found that uncovered coughing can lead to droplets traveling up to 4.5 meters (15 feet). A second study, produced during the 2020 pandemic, found that advice on the distance droplets could travel might be based on old 1930s research which ignored the protective effect and speed of the warm moist outbreath surrounding the droplets; it advised that droplets can travel around 7–8 meters.


As we know this has been a pandemic for the world we can easily conclude that the COVID-19 has not been limited to a certain continent.

Europe has the highest number of cases across the globe.

This shows the disease causes in all cases except the mortality rate is more in North America whereas South America's very less significant number is compared to North America even if the geographical location is very near to North America. But The mortality rate in SA is 4.14 percent which is lgreater than NA.

Asia continent which is the origin of COVID-19 has third-highest numbers in all cases except mortality rate.

Africa continent has fewer cases compared to other continents but the mortality rate is 5.44% which shows not a good sign that comes in the second number.

Australia which is far away from other continents has less affected cases compared to other continents

World Heat Map


Mortality Rate (Per 100)

We can see that the mortality rate of different continents varies. The high mortality is found in Europe whereas the low mortality rate is in Australia. It seems to be the mortality rate of the whole world is increasing day by day.


The total number of affected countries across the globe is more than 206 till Dt. 13.04.2020.

The USA has the most Confirmed cases whereas Italy has the highest number of deaths. China has the biggest number of recovered patients.

Italy which is a country of European continent though it has the second number of active cases the mortality rate is high among all highly affected countries.


Highly affected countries (Death cases)


Spread of COVID-19

The following graph indicates the spread of COVID-19 from 22nd Jan increased linearly till the last of Jan then the curve remains flattened around 25th of Feb. After that, the affected no of countries increased linearly to reach around 160 countries. Then it seems to be slow down.

Spread progression



INDIA

A total of 31 Indian states and union territories has been affected by COVID-19. The mortality rate is 3.59% whereas in Asia the number is 3.68%. It might increase with the increase in the number of cases.

In India mortality rate also varies in different geographical locations. The highest mortality rate of state Jharkhand is 10% though the number of cases is very less. If we consider Maharastra which has the highest number of cases. The mortality rate is 5%. Odisha holds the 12th position in terms of mortality rate.



India vs Pakistan





China

The origin-country of COVID-19 has managed to flatten its confirm cases curve as well as death cases. Italy has a 3 times higher mortality rate in China.

China Vs Rest of the world



USA

The USA is the most affected country of COVID-19. The number of cases is increasing rapidly. The mortality rate is also adding more numbers to it. The most affected state in the USA is New York. The mortality rate is also high among all states in the USA.







Prediction


  • A deep neural network (DNN) is an artificial neural network (ANN) with multiple layers between the input and output layers.

  • The DNN finds the correct mathematical manipulation to turn the input into the output, whether it be a linear relationship or a non-linear relationship.

  • The network moves through the layers calculating the probability of each output. For example, a DNN that is trained to recognize dog breeds will go over the given image and calculate the probability that the dog in the image is a certain breed.

  • The user can review the results and select which probabilities the network should display (above a certain threshold, etc.) and return the proposed label. Each mathematical manipulation as such is considered a layer, and complex DNN has many layers, hence the name "deep" networks.

  • In this work, DNN is used to predict the increasing number of cases and confirmed deaths over time.


Support Vector Machine





Remarks

The mortality rate of COVID-19 varies in different geographical locations.

If we compare three countries India, China, and the USA. China has the highest mortality rate of 4.03 which comes under continent Asia. Asia comes in 5th position in terms of mortality rate i.e. 3.69.

The most affected country the USA has a mortality rate of 3.97 which is a country in North America. North America has a mortality rate of 3.05 which holds the 4th position.

India has the less number of mortality rate compared to china and USA i.e 3.59

If the cases grow in this way the world will face new confirmed cases next week is near about 2.5 million whereas the death cases will grow to 2.5 lacks. And the mortality rate will become 10 per 100 people.

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